Base Rating Model
Elo updates on results & opponent quality — the recommended engine. Hybrid blends in FIFA points.
Host Advantage+50
Elo boost for host nations (USA · Mexico · Canada) on home soil.
Heat Penalty40
Debuff on cool-climate teams in scorching venues (Dallas, Houston, Monterrey). June–July heat is real.
Travel Fatigue35
Compounding debuff for cross-continent mileage. Mexico City → Vancouver → Miami punishes.
Chaos / Variance50
Low = chalk, favorites cruise. High = upset city. Controls match-result randomness.
Referee Bias15
Cheeky knob: subtle nudge toward hosts & footballing giants. Half-joke, half-real. 😏
Key Player Injuries0 OUT
Toggle a star OUT — strips Elo from their nation for the whole run. What if Messi or Mbappé pulls up lame?
—SIMS / SEC
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Adjust the parameters above, then hit RUN SIMULATIONS.The engine plays all 104 matches, 10,000 times, and aggregates who lifts the trophy.